Accurate forecasts can make or break a business. But as we learned in our September webinar with bestselling author Dr. Phil Tetlock, who wrote Superforecasting®: The Art and Science of Prediction, most predictions – even those from so-called experts – frequently miss the mark. How can we know if our probability assessments are as good as they can – and should – be?
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More InformationBack in September, Phil identified four best practices for building a Superforecasting® team. And no one has done a better job of making predictions than the probability assessment panel at Eli Lilly. Now led by Charles Persinger and created by recently retired Jay Andersen, this team has kept meticulous records of its forecasts and compared them with the actual outcome over a period of 20 years. There are many similarities between the best practices laid out by Professor Tetlock and the Lilly team’s processes and practices, leading to results that are head-and-shoulders above those of most business forecasters.
In this webinar, Charles and Jay describe the approach they established at Lilly and what they have learned over two decades. Carl Spetzler builds on Tetlock’s research findings and Lilly’s approach to propose a best-practice design for forecasting panels.
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