You Can’t Make Good Predictions Without Embracing Uncertainty

Harvard Business Review has featured an article from  Carl Spetzler and Peter Hopper, who leads the firm’s Hong Kong office.

Their article, “You Can’t Make Good Predictions Without Embracing Uncertainty,” discusses how too often experts labor to produce exquisitely precise and specific scenarios of how the future will unfold, shrugging off uncertainty on the grounds that the future is, ultimately, unknowable. But the uncertainty is no excuse for less rigor or clarity. A consistent, quantitative perspective on uncertainty not only builds the best foundation for making good management decisions but also provides a platform for developing a shared understanding of trade-offs, bridging disagreement and establishing accountability.

To read the full article, which includes an example of a consumer brand company rebalancing its sourcing locations, click here.