On most decision analysis projects, decision analysts weight the P10, P50 and P90 assessments with probabilities such as 25%, 50%, 25% or 30%, 40%, 30%. In this paper [$], Dr. Hammond (Chevron) and Professor Eric Bickel carefully examine the accuracy of these and other competing methods.
Published in 2013 in Decision Analysis. The abstract is free and the paper is available for purchase at this link.
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