Overconfidence and Confirmation Bias in Business Decisions

Researchers have identified hundreds of cognitive biases that routinely limit rational thinking, distort behavior, and derail decisions. Overconfidence is particularly pervasive in business environments. Many business leaders believe they are naturally gifted decision makers by virtue of the fact that they have risen so far in their careers. Confirmation bias, where we tend to seek information that confirms what we already believe, additionally distorts decision making.

Together, overconfidence and confirmation bias are the cause of many decision failures.

In this webinar, Barbara Mellers, a Wharton professor who studies the factors that influence judgment and decisions, discusses how to recognize overconfidence and confirmation bias as predictable aspects of human nature, and explores interventions and practices to keep them in check. She is joined by Carl Spetzler, an author and consultant who has spent the last few decades developing a robust process for business decision making. You will learn how to avoid overconfidence and confirmation biases so you can lead your teams to smarter, better decisions.

About the Speakers

Barbara Mellers, a globally influential scholar of decision making, is the I. George Heyman University Professor in the Department of Marketing in the Wharton School. Her research examines the factors that influence judgments and decisions, including emotions, self-interest, past mistakes, sensitivities to risk and perceptions of fairness.

Carl Spetzler is the CEO and chairman of Strategic Decisions Group. For more than 40 years, he has worked with business leaders to design successful, innovative strategies and achieve lasting change in the face of uncertainty and long time horizons.

Original Webinar Date: January 17, 2018