How to Build a Superforecasting Team
Nearly every business has forecasters. But studies have shown that most predictions, even those from experts, are frequently far from reality. Can we do better? The answer is yes: a handful of “superforecasters” do significantly outperform the average – especially when working in a team. What sets these superforecasting teams apart? Who should be on the team? What skills do they need?
Wharton Professor Philip Tetlock has conducted decades of research into prediction and forecasting, including his groundbreaking 2005 study into the accuracy of expert predictions. His 2015 bestselling book with coauthor Dan Gardner, Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction, argues that good forecasting is not just a matter of analytic computations and number-crunching horsepower; rather, it involves teamwork, gathering information from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, and being willing to admit mistakes and change course.
In conversation with Carl Spetzler, Professor Tetlock shares insights and guidelines about what makes a superforecaster and how to bring these capabilities into organizations.
About the Speakers
PHILIP E. TETLOCK is the Annenberg University Professor at the University of Pennsylvania, with appointments in Wharton, psychology and political science. He is co-leader of the Good Judgment Project, a multi-year study of the feasibility of improving the accuracy of probability judgments of high-stakes, real-world events. Professor Tetlock has published over 200 articles in peer-reviewed journals and has edited or written ten books. He is the author of Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know?; Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics (with Aaron Belkin); and Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction(with Dan Gardner).
CARL S. SPETZLER is an author, speaker, and business leader who over the past 40 years has helped guide decision teams to create innovative new strategies that deal with the complexities of risk and uncertainty over long time horizons. He is the lead author of Decision Quality: Value Creation for Better Business Decisions and a faculty member in the Wharton Executive Education and SDG Strategic Decision and Risk Management Certificate Program.
This webinar is sponsored by the Wharton Executive Education and SDG Strategic Decision and Risk Management certificate program. The certificate offers mid-career professionals the opportunity to enhance their leadership skills with a focus on making decisions under uncertainty. Complete five short courses (2½ to 5 days each) to earn the certificate while learning to make value-creating, defensible decisions and to manage risk for competitive advantage.
Original Webinar Date: September 19, 2018