How Accurate are Weather Forecasts, Anyway?

Have you ever wondered how accurate weather forecasts are? Can you even say a probabilistic forecast is “wrong”? After all, the forecaster predicted an 80 percent chance of rain – not 100 percent. So the forecaster will be right if it rains – and if it doesn’t!

In this webinar, Professor Eric Bickel from the University of Texas at Austin discusses probabilistic forecasting as applied not only to the weather but also to business. He explores how we might judge whether such forecasts are “good” or “skillful.” He presents his detailed study of The Weather Channel’s probabilistic precipitation forecasts – work that was featured in Nate Silver’s book, The Signal and the Noise. Professor Bickel explains how to measure the quality of a probabilistic forecast, summarizes how good The Weather Channel is at making such forecasts, and teaches you how to correct The Weather Channel’s forecasts all on your own!

About the Speaker

Dr. Eric Bickel is an SDG Fellow and an associate professor at the University of Texas at Austin, where he is director of the graduate program in Operations Research & Industrial Engineering and academic director of the Strategic Decision and Risk Management Certificate Program. Dr. Bickel also holds courtesy appointments in the Department of Petroleum and Geosystems Engineering and the Energy and Earth Resources graduate program.

Earn a Certificate in Strategic Decision and Risk Management from Texas Executive Education

This webinar is brought to you by collaboration of the SDG Decision Education Center and Texas Executive Education at The University of Texas at Austin, SDG’s partner in the Strategic Decision and Risk Management Certificate program. For more information on earning a certificate, visit Texas Executive Education.

Original Webinar Date: June 6, 2018