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Webinars

Publications

Insights

webinars

Blue vs. Green Hydrogen—How to Decide

Are you interested in investing in low-carbon hydrogen projects, but don’t know where to start? Do you want to...

webinars

Risk Management 3.0: Moving from Compliance to Competitive Advantage

Today, risk management is a standard practice in aerospace projects, with organizations like NASA and the Department of Defense...

publications

“How Decision Quality Powered by AI is Dramatically Improving Project Value in Capital-Intensive Industries”

In capital-intensive industries like oil and gas, pharma, and others, multi-million and even billion-dollar high-stakes decisions are made on...

publications

“Mitigating Biases in Pharmaceutical R&D Decision-Making”

Decisions made during the pharmaceutical R&D process involve many risks and uncertainties, and substantial literature has been developed on...

publications

“Techniques to Maximize Value from CCUS Decisions at Every Stage”

Executives at an international energy producer were considering how to lessen the company’s carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions by undertaking...

insights

Video: Indication Sequencing in Pharma

When the development team of a large pharmaceutical company was deciding on the order of the different indications for...

webinars

Hydrogen Scenario Planning

Hydrogen can play a pivotal role in achieving net zero goals, given its abundance and versatility. Realizing the commercial-scale...

publications

“How to Make Strategic Trade-Offs”

New CEOs with a fresh vision for the company or established leaders who are charting a new course face...

insights

Video: Portfolio Strategy for a Pharma Company

Watch this video of how a CEO fostered alignment on portfolio strategy.

publications

“A New Approach to Early-Stage Portfolio Decision Making”

Based on a 2021 webinar, this ebook describes an approach applied in life sciences to guide early stage, long-term...

publications

“Supporting Innovation in Early-Stage Pharmaceutical Development Decisions”

Pharmaceutical companies have frequent portfolio reviews to monitor development progress and prioritize development assets. The earliest assets are drug...

webinars

Rising to the Challenge in Aerospace Today: Better Decisions in a Rapidly Changing Environment

The aerospace industry is facing change that extends across technologies, systems, and organizations. The volume of business opportunities is...

webinars

The Importance of Portfolio Strategy in an Era of Real-Time Portfolio Management

Today, many pharma companies are investing in capabilities and tools to enable real-time portfolio management, in the belief this...

webinars

Navigating the Complex Landscape of Energy Transition Decisions

The current transition to reduce—and conceivably eliminate—carbon emissions is a transformational socio-economic event at an unprecedented scale. This movement...

webinars

Reinventing Capital Project Delivery

Embedding Decision Quality to Improve Project Success Large capital projects are a great place for building in decision quality—from...

webinars

Harnessing Conflict to Fuel a Healthy Decision Culture

Every healthy corporate culture has a set of common components—values, strategy, vision, people, practices, narrative. At its core is...

webinars

Embracing Uncertainty to Sharpen Scenario Planning and Forecasting

Scenario planning can help you broaden your strategic thinking about the future; design better, more robust alternatives; and harness...

webinars

Three Cheers for Simple Models: What COVID-19 Taught Us About Decision Modeling

Over the last 15 months we have witnessed policymakers grappling with how to respond to the spread of COVID-19...

webinars

A New Approach to Early-Stage Portfolio Decision Making

Comparing investments with long lead-times can be an exercise in futility. Trying to obtain credible inputs for outcomes 15...

webinars

Putting a Value on Data and Information Before Your Gather It

Organizations spend billions of dollars each year gathering and analyzing data. Is it worth it? Does more information always improve...

webinars

Judging the Quality of an ‘Agile’ Decision

The “agile” project management approach, which grew out of software development projects, features rapid iteration to communicate, integrate, and...

webinars

The Social Cost of Carbon

Carbon pricing is likely to take on growing significance in the coming decade as investors, consumers, and regulators increasingly...

webinars

How Oil & Gas Companies are Framing Energy Transition Strategy

Investors, consumers, and regulators are now expecting oil & gas companies to monitor and manage not only direct emissions...

publications

“Charting the Road to Energy Transition”

How the world’s largest oil & gas companies are approaching energy transition is evidence that committing to a net...

webinars

The Coming Energy Transition: Value Metrics and Alternatives to Consider Now

Energy companies have no shortage of strategic alternatives to consider in the coming transition away from fossil fuels and...

webinars

Beyond Decision Rights: What Most Decision Processes Get Wrong

Today in business, the “advocacy-approval” process is the norm for decision making. You’re likely to have participated many times...

webinars

The Future of ERM: Risk-Informed Decision Making Throughout the Enterprise

Why forward-thinking CROs are leading the way in transforming risk-informed decision making throughout the enterprise.  In leading organizations, the...

webinars

How to Establish a Healthy Decision Culture

At the heart of any healthy corporate culture is a healthy decision culture. Clarity of purpose, transparency of process,...

webinars

Decision Science for Data Scientists

The past decade has seen the integration of big data, artificial intelligence, and data science into business operations. The...

webinars

Data Science for Decision Professionals

The past few years have seen broad cross-industry adoption of data-driven decision making. Big data, artificial intelligence, and data...

webinars

Scenarios & Forecasting: Planning for Uncertainty

Gain a better understanding of the tools of scenario planning to create a vivid, compelling vision of how the...

webinars

How Game Theory Can Help Us Make Better Decisions

Game theory can provide useful insights into the competitive and cooperative kinds of strategic decisions regularly made by businesses...

webinars

Climate Change: A Decision Quality Approach to Policy

The polarizing issue of climate change intertwines science, geopolitics, economic trends, and the complexity of assigning a value to...

webinars

Accelerating the Journey to DQ with Distracted and Dispersed Teams

Successful Applications at Whiting Petroleum Today’s decision professional faces challenges like never before. Decision makers whose time is severely...

webinars

Toward Superforecasting®: Lessons from the Eli Lilly Probability Assessment Panel

Accurate forecasts can make or break a business. But as we learned in our September webinar with bestselling author Dr. Phil...

webinars

Premortem 3.0 – The Best Prevention for a Postmortem

Rethink the Premortem as a critical digital tool for today’s complex world in this webinar hosted by our friends...

publications

“Making the Business Case for a Patient Handling and Movement Program”

What is the value of a patient handling and movement program (PHAMP) in a healthcare or hospital setting? The...

publications

“Value-Driven ERM: Making ERM an Engine for Simultaneous Value Creation and Value Protection”

Enterprise Risk Management (ERM) began as an effort to integrate the historically disparate “silos” of risk management in organizations. Many organizations...

webinars

How to Build a Superforecasting® Team

Some forecasters are able to outperform the so-called experts – again and again. What sets these "superforecasters" apart, and...

webinars

The Great American Pastime: What Baseball Can Teach Us About Decision Making

Baseball is a highly strategic game, with important decisions being made both on and off the field. In this...

webinars

Creating Value from Flexibility and Uncertainty

Although an increasing number of companies use decision and risk management methods to deal with complex and uncertain decisions,...

webinars

Right Decisions Right Now: Observations from 30 Years of Decision Education

Powerful computers and massive data should have made decision making a breeze by now. So why are so many...

webinars

How Accurate are Weather Forecasts, Anyway?

A UT professor drills into the analytics of the weather forecast -- with lessons for business.

webinars

A Conversation on Ethics with Stanford Professor Ronald A. Howard

A decision scientist interviews Stanford Professor Ronald A. Howard, a founder of decision analysis, on the topic of ethics...

webinars

Successfully Negotiating from a Distance: Overcoming Physical and Psychological Challenges

Negotiating is complex enough as it is, but throw in some distance, and you may be in for an...

publications

“Three Things Every Executive Should Know About Risk

Business executives often have to make major decisions without knowing exactly how they will turn out. Many factors, all...

webinars

Decision Leadership: The Power to Influence Those Who Outrank You

Strategic decisions are often made in contests where the strongest advocate wins. Senior executives deserve better.

webinars

Three Things Every Executive Should Know About Risk (*Without the Complicated Math)

Business executives often have to make big decisions without knowing exactly how they will turn out. Here are three...

webinars

Overconfidence and Confirmation Bias in Business Decisions

Learn how to recognize overconfidence and confirmation biases so you can lead your teams to smarter, better decisions.

webinars

Strategic Innovation: The Power of Design Thinking in Business

How do businesses today reconcile the "creative" side of business with the need for financial and analytical rigor?

webinars

The Seven Deadly Sins of Strategy (Part II)

When organizations fail to develop and implement strategy that maximizes value, one often sees the same pattern of behavior...

webinars

The Seven Deadly Sins of Strategy (Part I)

When organizations fail to develop and implement strategy that maximizes value, one often sees the same pattern of behavior...

webinars

Five Mistakes Every Decision Maker Needs to Avoid

Anchoring on the past, rather than focusing on the future. Placing too much faith on intuition, even in simple...

webinars

DQ for Everyday Significant Decisions – When Decision Professionals will not be Present

Designed for decision professionals, this webinar explores how members of the profession can influence the vast majority of business...

webinars

Decision Making: The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly

Why do seemingly good decisions sometimes turn out all wrong? This webinar, presented by two leaders in the field...

publications

“Johnson Quantile-Parameterized Distributions”

In the field of decision analysis, it is common practice to elicit data points from continuous uncertainties from experts, and then fit...

webinars

The Upside of Risk

Forward-thinking companies are moving beyond risk protection and compliance to embrace the upside of risk. These organization not only...

publications

“An Organization-Wide Approach to Good Decision-Making”

Strategic Decisions Group CEO Carl Spetzler and Larry Neal, the recently retired manager of Decision Analysis at Chevron Corporation,...

publications

“You Can’t Make Good Predictions Without Embracing Uncertainty”

Harvard Business Review has featured an article from Strategic Decisions Group CEO Carl Spetzler and Peter Hopper, who leads the...

webinars

How Biases Sabotage Your Best Decisions

The human intellect is extremely powerful and capable. But our minds have evolved with biases that work against good...

webinars

Game Theory and the Psychology of Fairness

What are the best ways to approach decisions when there are multiple decision makers, each with different information, motives,...

webinars

Negotiation: Closing the Quality Gap

Decision making frequently occurs in a negotiation setting, with each party bringing slightly different preferences and even opposing points...

webinars

Decision Quality: How to Make the Right Choice the First Time

Decision quality empowers you to make the best possible choice and get more of what you truly want from...

webinars

Diversity of Decisions: Adding Quality in All Situations

This webinar, designed for decision professionals, addresses how to determine and select the best decision-focused approach to deal with...

publications

“Strategic Perspective Needed in T&D Asset Management”

At an increasing pace, power system outages are destroying billions of dollars in value every year. The United States endures more...

insights

eBook: Closing the Decision Quality Gap

One of the virtues of decision quality is that it allows us to know if we’ve made a good...

insights

Infographic: The Top Three Megabiases

Most of us assume we make good decisions using sound reasoning. But in reality, we all fall victim to...

insights

Infographic: Building ODQ

How can your organization benchmark Decision Quality (DQ)? Achieving true Organizational Decision Quality (ODQ) requires more than the adoption...

publications

Article and Risk-Adjusted-Value Excel Tool

Business executives often have to make major decisions without knowing exactly how they will turn out. Many factors, all...

publications

“Microrisks for Medical Decision Analysis”

by Ronald A. Howard In this publication [$], Professor Ron Howard develops the concept of a micromort to assist with...

publications

“Decision Analysis: Practice and Promise”

by Ronald A. Howard In this paper [$], Professor Ron Howard coins the term “Decision Quality” and specifies the six...

publications

“Influence Diagrams”

by Ronald A. Howard and James E. Matheson In this paper [$], Professor Ron Howard and Dr. Matheson define and...

publications

“The Development of a Corporate Risk Policy for Capital Investment Decisions”

by Carl S. Spetzler In this publication [$], Dr. Carl Spetzler presents the first effort to assess and deploy a...

publications

“Probability Encoding in Decision Analysis”

by Carl S. Spetzler and Carl-Axel S. von Holstein Developed in consultation with Professor Amos Tversky and Professor Daniel...

publications

“Decision Analysis: Applied Decision Theory”

by Ronald A. Howard This is the publication that started it all. In this paper, Professor Ron Howard of...

publications

“Quantifying the Reliability and Value of 3D Land Seismic”

by Eric Bickel, Richard L. Gibson, Duane A. McVay, Stephen Pickering, and John Waggoner In this paper [$], Professor Eric...

publications

“Modeling Dependence Among Geologic Risks in Sequential Exploration Decisions”

by Eric Bickel, James E. Smith and Jennifer L. Meyer In this paper [$], Professor Eric Bickel, Professor Jim Smith...

publications

“Climate Engineering and Climate Tipping-Point Scenarios”

by J. Eric Bickel In this paper [$], Professor Eric Bickel presents a decision-analytic approach to decision-making for climate-change policy....

publications

“Managing R&D Portfolios for Improved Profitability and Productivity”

by James E. Matheson, Michael M. Menke, and Stephen L. Derby. This paper addresses four questions fundamental when using...

publications

“How SmithKline Beecham Makes Better Resource Allocation Decisions”

by Paul Sharpe and Tom Keelin In this paper, former SDG consultant Tom Keelin and Paul Sharpe of then-SmithKline...

publications

“Portfolio Management in an Upstream Oil and Gas Organization”

A portfolio management process and system changes how decisions are made in an organization and builds confidence in the...

publications

“Comparing NWS PoP Forecasts to Third-Party Providers”

by J. Eric Bickel Featured in Nate Silver’s bestselling book The Signal and the Noise, Professor Eric Bickel analyzes...

publications

“On the Decision to Take a Pitch”

by Eric Bickel. In this paper [$], Professor Eric Bickel applies decision analysis to an important decision made during all...

publications

“On the Decision Relevance of Stochastic Oil Price Models: A Case Study”

by Robert K. Hammond and Eric Bickel Hydrocarbon (oil, natural gas, liquids) are highly uncertain, so SDG uses a...

publications

“Reexamining Discrete Approximations to Continuous Distributions”

by Robert K. Hammond and Eric Bickel On most decision analysis projects, decision analysts weight the P10, P50 and...

publications

“Quantile-Parameterized Distributions”

by Thomas W. Keelin and Bradford W. Powley It is quite common in the practice of decision analysis to...

publications

“Some Determinants of Corporate Risk Aversion”

by Eric Bickel In this paper [$], Professor Eric Bickel summarizes the rationale for developing a consistent corporate risk appetite...

publications

“The Relationship between Perfect and Imperfect Information in a Two-Action Risk-Sensitive Problem”

by Eric Bickel How much is data worth? How much is it worth to reduce uncertainty? These are common...